Where is Osama?

The amateurs, running U.S. foreign policy in the second Bush administration have committed a huge blunder in Afghanistan according to a commentary written by Eric Margolis in the L.A. Times last November 28, 2001. While Vladimir Putin was back slapping with George Bush II in Crawford, Texas, Putin had already put into play a new alliance with India and Iran. Putin’s goal was to check India’s arch enemy Pakistan, prevent Pakistan and the U.S. from constructing its Termez-Karachi pipeline across Afghanistan, and force western oil companies seeking to exploit the vast oil reserves in the Caspian basin to deal with Russia and Iran.

Margolis writes’ “...Washington fully expected to implant a pro-American regime in Kabul and open the way for the Pakistani-American pipeline. But, while the Bush administration was busy tearing apart Afghanistan to find Bin Laden, it failed to notice that the Russians were taking over half the country.”

“The Russians achieved this victory through their proxy--the Northern Alliance. Moscow, which has sustained the alliance since 1990, rearmed it after Sept. 11 with new tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, helicopters and trucks.”
“To the fury of Washington and Islamabad, in a coup de main the Russians rushed the Northern Alliance into Kabul, in direct contravention of Bush's dictates.”

“The alliance is now Afghanistan's dominant force and styles itself as the new ‘lawful’ government, a claim fully backed by Moscow. The Russians have regained influence over Afghanistan, avenged their defeat by the U.S. in the 1980s war and neatly checkmated the Bush administration. The U.S. ouster of the Taliban regime also means Pakistan has lost its former influence over Afghanistan. Russia has regained control of the best potential pipeline routes. The new Silk Road is destined to become a Russian energy superhighway.”

Clues to future events in Afghanistan can be found by looking closely at some of the top leaders of the Northern Alliance. According to BBC leadership profiles, three men stand out. They are: “General Abdul Rashid Dostum leader of Afghanistan's minority Uzbek community, The leader of the second largest party in the Northern Alliance, General Dostum directed the campaign to recapture Mazar-e-Sharif. In the years of Soviet domination, he transformed himself from a communist union organizer working in northern Afghan gas fields to the leader of the 20,000 strong Uzbek militia fighting on the Soviet side. “

Karim Khalili is the leader of the Hezb-e-Wahdat (Unity Party) which represents the Shia ethnic Hazara minority. Wahdat, according to the BBC, is the main benefactor of Iranian support.

Ismail Khan was the former governor of Herat. His forces captured Chaghcharan, the capital of Afghanistan's Ghor province, and, suspiciously, Herat near the Iranian border the day after Mazar-e-Sharif fell. The nearest Northern Alliance forces were more than 500 miles away in Mazar-e-Sharif.

With Russia and (perhaps) Iran controlling a great deal of Afghanistan because of Bush’s ineptitude, it is no surprise Osama Bin Ladan can’t be found. The national electronic news media, parroting U.S. intelligence and the Pentagon party line, insists Bin Laden is in the Tora Bora mountains, in Pakistan, or dead. However, Could Bin Laden and the Taliban leader Mullah Omar really be in Herat or even Iran? Betcha British intelligence knows.

December 2001